Are Market Forecasts Rational?

Frederic Mishkin

No 507, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper conducts tests of the rationality of both inflation and short-term interest rate forecasts in the bond market. These tests are developed with the theory of efficient markets and make use of security price data to infer information on market expectations.

Date: 1980-07
Note: EFG
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Published as Mishkin, Frederic S. "Are Market Forecasts Rational?" The American Economic Review, Vol. 71, No. 3, (June 1981), pp. 295-306.
Published as Are Market Forecasts Rational? , Frederic S. Mishkin. in A Rational Expectations Approach to Macroeconometrics: Testing Policy Ineffectiveness and Efficient-Markets Models , Mishkin. 1983

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Chapter: Are Market Forecasts Rational? (1983)
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