Adjustment to Expected and Unexpected Oil Price Changes

Nancy Marion () and Lars Svensson

No 997, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: For oil importers, differences in economic performance after the 1973-74 oil price increase and after the 1979-80 increase can be attributed to a number of factors, including the fact that the 1973-74 oil price increase was unexpected whereas the 1979-80 increase was largely expected. In this paper, we analyze how an economy's adjustment to expected oil price increases might differ from its adjustment to unexpected increases. By expected oil price increases, we shall mean ones that were anticipated in the past, and by unexpected oil price increases, we shall mean those that were not anticipated in the past but occur unexpectedly in the present. We model this distinction using a three- period model, where the periods are called the past, present and future.

Date: 1982-10
Note: ITI IFM
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Published as Marion, N.P. and Svensson, L., Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol.17, no.1, pp. 15-31, February 1984.

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