Evaluation of Exchange-Rate, Capital Market, and Dollarization Regimes in the Presence of Sudden Stops

Assaf Razin and Yona Rubinstein

No 11131, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: The literature has not being able to identify clear-cut real effects of exchange-rate regimes on output growth. Similarly, no definitive view emerges from the literature in regard to the effects of open capital markets on macroeconomic performance. The paper attributes the failure of the literature to fundamental flaws, consisting of ignoring non-linearities in the effects of exchange rate and capital-market liberalization regimes, on the macroeconomic performance. The paper develops a methodology consisting of accounting for the "crisis-prone state of the economy", summarized by a projected probability of crisis, due to sudden stops in international capital inflows. We apply the new methodology to a cross-country panel of 100 low and middle-income countries. Findings indicate that the effects of exchange rate regimes, and liberalization regimes, on macroeconomic performance go through two distinct channels: a direct channel via the real side of the economy, and an indirect channel via the financial side, which influences the probability of sudden stops. We also analyze how the projected probability of sudden stops affects the level of dollarization, and provide estimates for the effect of dollarization on growth.

JEL-codes: F4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ifn
Note: IFM
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w11131.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Evaluation of Exchange-Rate, Capital-Market, and Dollarization Regimes in the Presence of Sudden Stops (2005)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11131

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w11131

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().