EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Endogenous Fertility, Mortality and Economic Growth: Can a Malthusian Framework Account for the Conflicting Historical Trends in Population?

Isaac Ehrlich () and Jinyoung Kim ()

No 11590, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: The 19th century economist, Thomas Robert Malthus, hypothesized that the long-run supply of labor is completely elastic at a fixed wage-income level because population growth tends to outstrip real output growth. Dynamic equilibrium with constant income and population is achieved through equilibrating adjustments in "positive checks" (mortality, starvation) and "preventive checks" (marriage, fertility). Developing economies since the Industrial Revolution, and more recently especially Asian economies, have experienced steady income growth accompanied by sharply falling fertility and mortality rates. We develop a dynamic model of endogenous fertility, longevity, and human capital formation within a Malthusian framework that allows for diminishing returns to labor but also for the role of human capital as an engine of growth. Our model accounts for economic stagnation with high fertility and mortality and constant population and income, as predicted by Malthus, but also for takeoffs to a growth regime and a demographic transition toward low fertility and mortality rates, and a persistent growth in per-capita income.

JEL-codes: O1 J1 I1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev, nep-dge, nep-hea and nep-his
Date: 2005-09
Note: HE
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (11) Track citations by RSS feed

Published as "Endogenous fertility, mortality and economic growth: Can a Malthusian framework account for the conflicting historical trends in population?" Journal of Asian Economics, 16 (2005), pp. 789-806.

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w11590.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Endogenous fertility, mortality and economic growth: Can a Malthusian framework account for the conflicting historical trends in population? (2005) Downloads
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11590

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w11590

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().

 
Page updated 2018-06-16
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11590