Searching for Non-Monotonic Effects of Fiscal Policy: New Evidence

Francesco Giavazzi (), Tullio Jappelli (), Marco Pagano and Marina Benedetti

No 11593, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Data revisions and the availability of a longer sample offer the opportunity to reconsider the empirical findings that suggest that in the OECD countries national saving responds non-monotonically to fiscal policy. The paper confirms that the circumstance most likely to give rise to a non-monotonic response of national saving to a fiscal impulse is a "large and persistent impulse", defined as one in which the full employment surplus, as a percent of potential output, changes by at least 1.5 percentage points per year over a two-year period. This particular circumstance remains the only statistically significant one even when we allow for non-monotonic responses to arise when public debt is growing rapidly or interest rate spreads are widening. We find that non-monotonic responses are similar for fiscal contractions and expansions. In particular, an increase in net taxes has no effect on national saving during large fiscal contractions or expansions. For government consumption there is a large, albeit in some specifications less then complete, offset during expansions or contractions.

JEL-codes: E21 E62 H31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-pbe
Note: EFG
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

Published as Giavazzi, Francesco & Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco & Benedetti, Marina, 2005. "Searching for Non-monotonic Effects of Fiscal Policy: New Evidence," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 23(S1), pages 197-217, October.

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Journal Article: Searching for Non-monotonic Effects of Fiscal Policy: New Evidence (2005)
Working Paper: Searching for Non-Monotonic Effects of Fiscal Policy: New Evidence (2005)
Working Paper: Searching for Non-Monotonic Effects of Fiscal Policy: New Evidence (2005)
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