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Activist Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Overshooting: The Deutsche Mark/Dollar Rate

David Papell

No 1195, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: After a decade of generalized floating, it is clear that bilateral exchange rates exhibit more variability than the economic aggregates; relative prices, incomes, and money supplies, that generally comprise the fundamentals of theories of exchange rate determination. Dornbush's over-shooting hypothesis is the best known explanation of this phenomenon. This paper shows that accommodative monetary policy (with respect to prices) has the potential to cause the economy to switch from exchange rate overshooting to undershooting. Using constrained maximum likelihood methods, the model is estimated for Germany and the United States. The results provide strong evidence in support of the overshooting hypothesis for the Deutsche Mark/Dollar exchange rate.

Date: 1983-08
Note: ITI IFM
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Published as Papell, David H. "Activist Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Overshooting: The Deutsche Mark/Dollar Rate." Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 3, No. 3, (December 1984), pp. 293-310.

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