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Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D

Nicholas Bloom ()

No 12841, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Uncertainty varies strongly over time, rising by 50% to 100% in recessions and by up to 200% after major economic and political shocks. This paper shows that higher uncertainty reduces the responsiveness of R&D to changes in business conditions - a "caution-effect" - making it more persistent over time. Thus, uncertainty will play a critical role in shaping the dynamics of R&D through the business cycle, and its response to technology policy. I also show that if firms are increasing their level of R&D then the effect of uncertainty will be negative, while if firms are reducing R&D then the effect of uncertainty will be positive.

JEL-codes: D8 D92 E32 O3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ino, nep-ipr, nep-pr~, nep-mac and nep-tid
Date: 2007-01
Note: EFG PR
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Published as Nick Bloom, 2007. "Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 250-255, May.

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Journal Article: Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D (2007) Downloads
Working Paper: Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D (2007) Downloads
Working Paper: Uncertainty and the dynamics of R&D (2007) Downloads
Working Paper: Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D (2007) Downloads
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