Understanding Crude Oil Prices

James Hamilton

No 14492, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper examines the factors responsible for changes in crude oil prices. The paper reviews the statistical behavior of oil prices, relates these to the predictions of theory, and looks in detail at key features of petroleum demand and supply. Topics discussed include the role of commodity speculation, OPEC, and resource depletion. The paper concludes that although scarcity rent made a negligible contribution to the price of oil in 1997, it could now begin to play a role.

JEL-codes: Q3 Q4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene
Note: EEE
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (171)

Published as James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Understanding Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 179-206.

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Journal Article: Understanding Crude Oil Prices (2009)
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