Short-Term Movements of Long-Term Real Interest Rates: Evidence from the U.K. Indexed Bond Market

James A. Wilcox

No 1543, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: The central goverment now issues both nominal and iflation indexed long-term bonds in the United Kingdom. The difference in their yields provides one measure of the long-term expevted rate of inflation. The evidence suggests that higher long-term, expected , real yields are associated with forecasts of higher income, with tigher monetary policy, and with positive aggregate supply shocks. Changes in the short-termgrowth rate of the monbetary base, which presumably capture the so-called liquidity effect on the short-terminterst rates, do not perceptibly alterlong-term real rates. Long-term real rates also appear to be unaffected by the rate of expected inflation. Comparison with nominal interest rate equiation estimates reveals that conclusions about the effect of all variables are extremely sensitive to the choice of a proxy for expected long-term inflation.

Date: 1985-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lab
Note: ME
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w1543.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1543

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w1543

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().