International Business Cycle Synchronization in Historical Perspective

Michael Bordo and Thomas F. Helbling

No 16103, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: In this paper, we review and attempt to explain the changes in business cycle synchronization among 16 industrial countries and the over the past century and a quarter, demarcated into four exchange rate regimes. We find that there is a secular trend towards increased synchronization for much of the twentieth century and that it occurs across diverse exchange rate regimes. This finding is in marked contrast to much of the recent literature, which has focused primarily on the evidence for the past 20 or 30 years and which has produced mixed results. We then examine the role of global shocks and shock transmission in the trend toward synchronization. Our key finding here is that global (common) shocks generally are the dominant influence.

JEL-codes: F0 N0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-cba, nep-his and nep-opm
Note: DAE
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Published as Michael D. Bordo & Thomas F. Helbling, 2011. "International Business Cycle Synchronization In Historical Perspective," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(2), pages 208-238, 03.

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Journal Article: INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLE SYNCHRONIZATION IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE (2011)
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