Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring

S. Boragan Aruoba, Francis Diebold, Ayhan Kose and Marco Terrones

No 16264, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We propose and implement a framework for characterizing and monitoring the global business cycle. Our framework utilizes high-frequency data, allows us to account for a potentially large amount of missing observations, and is designed to facilitate the updating of global activity estimates as data are released and revisions become available. We apply the framework to the G-7 countries and study various aspects of national and global business cycles, obtaining three main results. First, our measure of the global business cycle, the common G-7 real activity factor, explains a significant amount of cross-country variation and tracks the major global cyclical events of the past forty years. Second, the common G-7 factor and the idiosyncratic country factors play different roles at different times in shaping national economic activity. Finally, the degree of G-7 business cycle synchronization among country factors has changed over time.

JEL-codes: E3 E6 F4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-opm
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

Published as S. Borağan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & M. Ayhan Kose & Marco E. Terrones, 2011. "Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 245 - 286.
Published as Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring , S. Borağan Aruoba, Francis X. Diebold, M. Ayhan Kose, Marco E. Terrones. in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010 , Clarida and Giavazzi. 2011

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Related works:
Journal Article: Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring (2011)
Working Paper: Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring (2011)
Chapter: Globalization, the Business Cycle, and Macroeconomic Monitoring (2010)
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