Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China

Marcos Chamon (), Kai Liu and Eswar Prasad

No 16565, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: China's household saving rate has increased markedly since the mid-1990s and the age-savings profile has become U-shaped during the 2000s. We find that rising income uncertainty and pension reforms help explain both of these phenomena. Using a panel of Chinese households covering the period 1989-2006, we document that strong average income growth has been accompanied by a substantial increase in income uncertainty. Interestingly, the permanent variance of household income remains stable while it is the transitory variance that rises sharply. A calibration of a buffer-stock savings model indicates that rising savings rates among younger households are consistent with rising income uncertainty and higher saving rates among older households are consistent with a decline in the pension replacement ratio for those retiring after 1997. We conclude that rising income uncertainty and pension reforms can account for over half of the increase in the urban household savings rate in China since the mid-1990s as well as the U-shaped age-saving profile.

JEL-codes: D91 E21 J3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-bec and nep-dev
Note: IFM
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (51)

Published as Chamon, Marcos & Liu, Kai & Prasad, Eswar, 2013. "Income uncertainty and household savings in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 164-177.

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Related works:
Journal Article: Income uncertainty and household savings in China (2013)
Working Paper: Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China (2010)
Working Paper: Income Uncertainty and Household Savings in China (2010)
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