Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth

David Bloom, David Canning and Günther Fink

No 16705, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: The share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in nearly every country in the world during 2005-2050. Population ageing will tend to lower both labor-force participation and savings rates, thereby raising concerns about a future slowing of economic growth. Our calculations suggest that OECD countries are likely to see modest - but not catastrophic - declines in the rate of economic growth. However, behavioral responses (including greater female labor force participation) and policy reforms (including an increase in the legal age of retirement) can mitigate the economic consequences of an older population. In most non-OECD countries, declining fertility rates will cause labor-force-to-population ratios to rise as the shrinking share of young people will more than offset the skewing of adults toward the older ages. These factors suggest that population ageing will not significantly impede the pace of economic growth in developing countries.

JEL-codes: J14 J15 J21 J26 O1 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-01
Note: AG EFG LS
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (51)

Published as David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w16705.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth (2011)
Journal Article: Implications of population ageing for economic growth (2010)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16705

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w16705

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().