The Evolution of Comparative Advantage: Measurement and Welfare Implications

Andrei Levchenko and Jing Zhang

No 16806, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We estimate productivities at the sector level for 72 countries and 5 decades, and examine how they evolve over time in both developed and developing countries. In both country groups, comparative advantage has become weaker: productivity grew systematically faster in sectors that were initially at greater comparative disadvantage. These changes have had a significant impact on trade volumes and patterns, and a non-negligible welfare impact. In the counterfactual scenario in which each country's comparative advantage remained the same as in the 1960s, and technology in all sectors grew at the same country-specific average rate, trade volumes would be higher, cross-country export patterns more dissimilar, and intra-industry trade lower than in the data. In this counterfactual scenario, welfare is also 1.6% higher for the median country compared to the baseline. The welfare impact varies greatly across countries, ranging from -1.1% to +4.3% among OECD countries, and from -4.6% to +41.9% among non-OECD countries.

JEL-codes: F11 F43 O33 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-opm
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Published as Levchenko, Andrei A. & Zhang, Jing, 2016. "The evolution of comparative advantage: Measurement and welfare implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 96-111.

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Related works:
Journal Article: The evolution of comparative advantage: Measurement and welfare implications (2016)
Working Paper: The Evolution of Comparative Advantage: Measurement and Welfare Implications (2011)
Working Paper: The Evolution of Comparative Advantage: Measurement and Welfare Implications (2010)
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