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Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change Impacts, with Applications to U.S. and African Agriculture

Marshall Burke, John Dykema, David Lobell, Edward Miguel and Shanker Satyanath

No 17092, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: A growing body of economics research projects the effects of global climate change on economic outcomes. Climate scientists often criticize these articles because nearly all ignore the well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, and therefore appear likely to have downward biased standard errors and potentially misleading point estimates. This paper incorporates climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. agriculture. Accounting for climate uncertainty leads to a much wider range of projected impacts on agricultural profits, with the 95% confidence interval featuring drops of between 17% to 88%. An application to African agriculture yields similar results.

JEL-codes: O13 Q11 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr, nep-agr, nep-ene, nep-env and nep-res
Note: EEE
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

Published as “Incorporating climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts” (co-authors Marshall Burke, John Dykema, David Lobell, Shanker Satyanath), Review of Economics and Statistics. May 2015, Vol. 97, No. 2

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