The Best of Times, the Worst of Times: Understanding Pro-cyclical Mortality

Ann Stevens, Douglas Miller, Marianne Page and Mateusz Filipski

No 17657, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: A growing literature documents cyclical movements in mortality and health. We examine this pattern more closely and attempt to identify the mechanisms behind it. Specifically, we distinguish between mechanisms that rely on fluctuations in own employment or time use and those involving factors that are external to the individual. Our investigation suggests that changes in individuals' own behavior contribute very little to pro-cyclical mortality. Looking across broad age and gender groups, we find that own-group employment rates are not systematically related to own-group mortality. In addition, we find that most of the additional deaths that occur during times of economic growth are among the elderly, particularly elderly women, who have limited labor force attachment. Focusing on mortality among the elderly, we show that cyclicality is especially strong for deaths occurring in nursing homes, and is stronger in states where a higher fraction of the elderly reside in nursing homes. We also demonstrate that staffing in skilled nursing facilities moves counter-cyclically. Taken together, these findings suggest that cyclical fluctuations in the mortality rate may be largely driven by fluctuations in the quality of health care.

JEL-codes: I1 J6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem
Note: AG EH LS
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (53)

Published as Ann H. Stevens & Douglas L. Miller & Marianne E. Page & Mateusz Filipski, 2015. "The Best of Times, the Worst of Times: Understanding Pro-cyclical Mortality," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 279-311, November.

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