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Shanghai's Trade, China's Growth: Continuity, Recovery, and Change since the Opium War

Wolfgang Keller (), Ben Li () and Carol Shiue ()

No 17754, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: In this paper, we provide aggregate trends in China's trade performance from the 1840s to the present. Based on historical benchmarks, we argue that China's recent gains are not exclusively due to the reforms since 1978. Rather, foreign economic activity can be understood by developments that were set in motion in the 19th century. We turn our focus to Shanghai, currently the world's largest port. Shanghai began direct trade relations with western nations starting in 1843. By 1853, Shanghai already accounted for more than half of China's foreign trade. In tracking the levels and growth rates of the city's net and gross imports and exports, foreign direct investment, and foreign residents over more than a century, we find that Shanghai's level of bilateral trade today with the United States, the United Kingdom, or Japan, for example, are by no means high given Shanghai's 19th century experience. This paper argues that a regional approach that embeds national trading destinations within an international trading system provides a meaningful approach to understanding the history of China's trade.

JEL-codes: F10 F22 F23 N81 N83 N85 N95 O43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dev, nep-his, nep-int and nep-tra
Date: 2012-01
Note: DAE IFM ITI POL
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Published as Wolfgang Keller & Ben Li & Carol H Shiue, 2013. "Shanghai's Trade, China's Growth: Continuity, Recovery, and Change since the Opium Wars," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 61(2), pages 336-378, June.

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Journal Article: Shanghai's Trade, China's Growth: Continuity, Recovery, and Change since the Opium Wars (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: Shanghai’s Trade, China’s Growth: Continuity, Recovery, and Change since the Opium War (2012) Downloads
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