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The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle

Alisdair McKay () and Ricardo Reis

No 19000, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Most countries have automatic rules in their tax-and-transfer systems that are partly intended to stabilize economic fluctuations. This paper measures how effective they are. We put forward a model that merges the standard incomplete-markets model of consumption and inequality with the new Keynesian model of nominal rigidities and business cycles, and that includes most of the main potential stabilizers in the U.S. data, as well as the theoretical channels by which they may work. We find that the conventional argument that stabilizing disposable income will stabilize aggregate demand plays a negligible role on the effectiveness of the stabilizers, whereas tax-and-transfer programs that affect inequality and social insurance can have a large effect on aggregate volatility. However, as currently designed, the set of stabilizers in place in the United States has barely had any effect on volatility. According to our model, expanding safety-net programs, like food stamps, has the largest potential to enhance the effectiveness of the stabilizers.

JEL-codes: E32 E62 H30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ias, nep-mac and nep-pbe
Date: 2013-04
Note: EFG ME PE
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Published as Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2016. "The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 141-194, 01.

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Related works:
Journal Article: The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: The role of automatic stabilizers in the U.S.business cycle (2016) Downloads
Working Paper: The role of automatic stabilizers in the U.S. business cycle (2013) Downloads
Working Paper: The role of automatic stabilizers in the U.S. business cycle (2013) Downloads
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