Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments
Scott Baker () and
Nicholas Bloom ()
No 19475, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in booms. But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth? To identify this we construct cross country panel data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies for the first and second moments of business conditions. We then use natural disasters, terrorist attacks and unexpected political shocks as instruments for our stock market proxies of first and second moment shocks. We find that both the first and second moments are highly significant in explaining GDP growth, with second moment shocks accounting for at least a half of the variation in growth. Variations in higher moments of stock market returns appear to have little impact on growth.
JEL-codes: D92 E2 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
Note: DEV EFG LS ME PR
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (48) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Working Paper: Does Uncertainty Reduce Growth? Using Disasters as Natural Experiments (2013)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19475
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().