When is Nonfundamentalness in VARs a Real Problem? An Application to News Shocks
Paul Beaudry (),
Alain Guay () and
Franck Portier ()
No 21466, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
When the VAR representation of a times series has a non-fundamental representation, standard SVAR techniques cannot be used to exactly identify the effects of structural shocks. This problem is know to potentially arise when one of the structural shocks represents news about the future. However, as we shall show, in many case the non-fundamental representation of a time series may be very close to its fundamental representation implying that standard SVAR techniques may provide a very good approximation of the effects of structural shocks even when the non-fundamentalness is formally present. This leads to the question: When is non-fundamentalness a real problem? In this paper we derive and illustrate a diagnostic based on a $R^2$ which provides a simple means of detecting whether non-fundamentalness is likely to be a quantitatively important problem in an applied settings. We use the identification of technological news shocks in US data as our running example.
JEL-codes: E3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
Working Paper: When is Nonfundamentalness in VARs A Real Problem? An Application to News Shocks (2015)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21466
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().