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Central bank Credibility Before and After the Crisis

Michael Bordo () and Pierre Siklos ()

No 21710, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: A new measure of credibility is constructed as a function of the differential between observed inflation and some estimate of the inflation rate that the central bank targets. The target is assumed to be met flexibly. Credibility is calculated for a large group of both advanced and emerging countries from 1980 to 2014. Financial crises reduce central bank credibility and central banks with strong institutional feaures tend to do better when hit by a shock of the magnitude of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The VIX, adopting an inflation target and central bank transparency, are the most reliable determinants of credibility. Similarly, real economic growth has a significant influence on central bank credibility even in inflation targeting economies.

JEL-codes: C31 E31 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2015-11
Note: DAE ME
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Published as Michael D. Bordo & Pierre L. Siklos, 2017. "Central Bank Credibility before and after the Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 19-45, February.

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