Extrapolation and Bubbles

Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer

No 21944, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals—an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors “waver” over time in the relative weight they put on them. The model predicts that good news about fundamentals can trigger large price bubbles. We analyze the patterns of cash-flow news that generate the largest bubbles, the reasons why bubbles collapse, and the frequency with which they occur. The model also predicts that bubbles will be accompanied by high trading volume, and that volume increases with past asset returns. We present empirical evidence that bears on some of the model’s distinctive predictions.

JEL-codes: G02 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mst
Note: AP
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (34)

Published as Nicholas Barberis & Robin Greenwood & Lawrence Jin & Andrei Shleifer, 2018. "Extrapolation and bubbles," Journal of Financial Economics, .

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Journal Article: Extrapolation and bubbles (2018)
Working Paper: Extrapolation and Bubbles (2015)
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