Partisanship and Survey Refusal

Mark Borgschulte, Heepyung Cho and Darren Lubotsky

No 26433, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Survey refusal in the Current Population Survey (CPS) has tripled over the last decade. This rise coincides with the emergence of rhetoric, largely from the political right, questioning the accuracy and integrity of government statistics. We examine how support for the Tea Party and the Republican party have affected CPS refusal rates and whether households are more likely to participate in the survey when their preferred political party holds the White House. Using state and metro vote shares or an individual-level model based on the longitudinal structure of the CPS, we find no evidence that Republican or Tea Party supporters drive the long-term upward trend in refusals. We do find evidence of a political cycle in response rates. Refusal rates since 2015 exhibit polarization, with the fastest growth in refusals among those least likely to support Trump and the Tea Party. Evidence from an analysis which generates exogenous variation in Tea Party support using rain on the day of the first Tea Party rally indicates that exposure to anti-survey rhetoric decreases refusal rates, consistent with the findings from our other analyses.

JEL-codes: C81 I32 J64 P48 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-pol
Note: LS
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Published as Mark Borgschulte & Heepyung Cho & Darren Lubotsky, 2022. "Partisanship and survey refusal," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, vol 200, pages 332-357.

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