The Private and External Costs of Germany's Nuclear Phase-Out

Stephen Jarvis, Olivier Deschenes and Akshaya Jha

No 26598, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Many countries have phased out nuclear electricity production in response to concerns about nuclear waste and the risk of nuclear accidents. This paper examines the impact of the shutdown of roughly half of the nuclear production capacity in Germany after the Fukushima accident in 2011. We use hourly data on power plant operations and a novel machine learning framework to estimate how plants would have operated differently if the phase-out had not occurred. We find that the lost nuclear electricity production due to the phase-out was replaced primarily by coal-fired production and net electricity imports. The social cost of this shift from nuclear to coal is approximately 12 billion dollars per year. Over 70% of this cost comes from the increased mortality risk associated with exposure to the local air pollution emitted when burning fossil fuels. Even the largest estimates of the reduction in the costs associated with nuclear accident risk and waste disposal due to the phase-out are far smaller than 12 billion dollars.

JEL-codes: C4 Q4 Q5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-reg
Note: EEE
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Published as Stephen Jarvis & Olivier Deschenes & Akshaya Jha, 2022. "The Private and External Costs of Germany’s Nuclear Phase-Out," Journal of the European Economic Association, vol 20(3), pages 1311-1346.

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Journal Article: The Private and External Costs of Germany’s Nuclear Phase-Out (2022)
Working Paper: The private and external costs of Germany’s nuclear phase-out (2022)
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