The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population

Charles Jones

No 26651, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: In many models, economic growth is driven by people discovering new ideas. These models typically assume either a constant or a growing population. However, in high income countries today, fertility is already below its replacement rate: women are having fewer than two children on average. It is a distinct possibility — highlighted in the recent book, “Empty Planet” — that global population will decline rather than stabilize in the long run. What happens to economic growth when population growth turns negative?

JEL-codes: E0 J11 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem, nep-evo, nep-gro and nep-mac
Note: EFG PR
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (32)

Published as Charles I. Jones, 2022. "The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population," American Economic Review, vol 112(11), pages 3489-3527.

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