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Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies (NK-Default)

Cristina Arellano, Yan Bai () and Gabriel Mihalache ()

No 26671, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper develops a New Keynesian model with sovereign default risk (NK-Default). We focus on the interaction between monetary policy, conducted according to an interest rate rule that targets inflation, and external defaultable debt issued by the government. Monetary policy and default risk interact since both affect domestic consumption, production, and inflation. We find that default risk amplifies monetary frictions and generates a tension for monetary policy, which increases the volatility of inflation and nominal rates. These monetary frictions in turn discipline sovereign borrowing, slowing down debt accumulation and lowering sovereign spreads. Our framework replicates the positive comovements of spreads with nominal domestic rates and inflation, a salient feature of emerging markets data, and can rationalize the experience of Brazil during the 2015 downturn, with high inflation, nominal rates, and spreads.

JEL-codes: E52 F34 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-dge, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-opm
Note: EFG IFM ME
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Related works:
Working Paper: Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies (NK-Default) (2020) Downloads
Working Paper: Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies (NK-Default) (2019) Downloads
Working Paper: Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies (NK-Default) (2019) Downloads
Working Paper: Inflation Targeting with Sovereign Default Risk (2018) Downloads
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