Foreign Exchange Order Flow as a Risk Factor

Craig Burnside, Mario Cerrato and Zhekai Zhang

No 27199, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper proposes a set of novel pricing factors for currency returns that are motivated by microstructure models. In so doing, we bring two strands of the exchange rate literature, namely market-microstructure and risk-based models, closer together. Our novel factors use order flow data to provide direct measures of buying and selling pressure related to carry trading and momentum strategies. We find that they appear to be good proxies for currency crash risk. Additionally, we show that the association between our order-flow factors and currency returns differs according to the customer segment of the foreign exchange market. In particular, it appears that financial customers are risk takers in the market, while non-financial customers serve as liquidity providers.

JEL-codes: F31 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mst and nep-ore
Note: IFM
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Related works:
Working Paper: Foreign exchange order fl ow as a risk factor (2018)
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