Financing Vaccines for Global Health Security

Jonathan T. Vu, Benjamin K. Kaplan, Shomesh Chaudhuri, Monique K. Mansoura and Andrew Lo ()

No 27212, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Recent outbreaks of infectious pathogens such as Zika, Ebola, and COVID-19 have underscored the need for the dependable availability of vaccines against emerging infectious diseases (EIDs). The cost and risk of R&D programs and uniquely unpredictable demand for EID vaccines have discouraged vaccine developers, and government and nonprofit agencies have been unable to provide timely or sufficient incentives for their development and sustained supply. We analyze the economic returns of a portfolio of EID vaccine assets, and find that under realistic financing assumptions, the expected returns are significantly negative, implying that the private sector is unlikely to address this need without public-sector intervention. We have sized the financing deficit for this portfolio and analyze several potential solutions, including price increases, enhanced public-private partnerships, and subscription models through which individuals would pay annual fees to obtain access to a portfolio of vaccines in the event of an outbreak.

JEL-codes: G11 G12 G31 G32 G38 H12 H41 H51 I11 I18 L11 L52 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cfn and nep-hea
Note: AP EH
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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