Fatalism, Beliefs, and Behaviors During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Jesper Akesson, Sam Ashworth-Hayes, Robert Hahn, Robert Metcalfe () and Itzhak Rasooly

No 27245, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Little is known about how people’s beliefs concerning the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) influence their behavior. To shed light on this, we conduct an online experiment (n = 3,610) with US and UK residents. Participants are randomly allocated to a control group or to one of two treatment groups. The treatment groups are shown upperor lower-bound expert estimates of the infectiousness of the virus. We present three main empirical findings. First, individuals dramatically overestimate the dangerousness and infectiousness of COVID-19 relative to expert opinion. Second, providing people with expert information partially corrects their beliefs about the virus. Third, the more infectious people believe that COVID-19 is, the less willing they are to take protective measures, a finding we dub the “fatalism effect”. We develop a formal model that can explain the fatalism effect and discuss its implications for optimal policy during the pandemic.

JEL-codes: I0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp and nep-soc
Note: EH PE
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (43)

Published as Jesper Akesson & Sam Ashworth-Hayes & Robert Hahn & Robert Metcalfe & Itzhak Rasooly, 2022. "Fatalism, beliefs, and behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, vol 64(2), pages 147-190.

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