The Geopolitics of International Trade in Southeast Asia

A. Kerem Coşar and Benjamin D. Thomas

No 28048, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Motivated by the historically tense geopolitical situation in Southeast Asia, we simulate the potential closure of key maritime waterways in the region to predict the impact on trade and welfare. We generate initial (unobstructed) and counterfactual (rerouted) least-cost maritime paths between trading countries, and use the distances of these routes in a workhorse model of international trade to estimate welfare effects. We find heterogeneous and economically significant reductions in real GDP, and show the magnitude of welfare loss is directly correlated with military spending as a proportion of GDP, suggesting nations may be responding to economic security threats posed by such potential conflicts.

JEL-codes: F14 F5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int and nep-sea
Note: ITI
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published as Kerem Cosar & Benjamin Thomas, 2021. "The geopolitics of international trade in Southeast Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(1), pages 207-219, February.

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w28048.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: The Geopolitics of International Trade in Southeast Asia (2020)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28048

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w28048

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().