The Inexorable Recoveries of Unemployment

Robert Hall () and Marianna Kudlyak

No 28111, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Unemployment recoveries in the US have been inexorable. Between 1948 and 2019, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate during cyclical recoveries was fairly tightly distributed around 0.1 log points per year. The economy seems to have an irresistible force toward restoring full employment. In the aftermath of a recession, unless another crisis intervenes, unemployment continues to glide down. Occasionally, unemployment rises rapidly during an economic crisis, while most of the time, unemployment declines slowly and smoothly at a near-constant proportional rate. We show that similar properties hold for other measures of the US unemployment rate and for the unemployment rates of many other emerging and advanced countries.

JEL-codes: E32 J64 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-lab and nep-mac
Note: EFG LS
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Published as Robert E. Hall & Marianna Kudlyak, 2022. "The Inexorable Recoveries of Unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, .

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Journal Article: The inexorable recoveries of unemployment (2022)
Working Paper: The Inexorable Recoveries of Unemployment (2022)
Working Paper: The Inexorable Recoveries of Unemployment (2022)
Working Paper: The Inexorable Recoveries of U.S. Unemployment (2021)
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