Cite Unseen: Theory and Evidence on the Effect of Open Access on Cites to Academic Articles Across the Quality Spectrum

Mark J. McCabe and Christopher Snyder

No 28128, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Our previous paper (McCabe and Snyder 2014) contained the provocative result that, despite a positive average effect, open access reduces cites to some articles, in particular those published in lower-tier journals. We propose a model in which open access leads more readers to acquire the full text, yielding more cites from some, but fewer cites from those who would have cited the article based on superficial knowledge but who refrain once they learn that the article is a bad match. We test the theory with data for over 200,000 science articles binned by cites received during a pre-study period. Consistent with the theory, the marginal effect of open access is negative for the least-cited articles, positive for the most cited, and generally monotonic for quality levels in between. Also consistent with the theory is a magnification of these effects for articles placed on PubMed Central, one of the broadest open-access platforms, and the differential pattern of results for cites from insiders versus outsiders to the article’s field.

JEL-codes: D83 L17 O33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-sog
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Published as Mark J. McCabe & Christopher M. Snyder, 2021. "Cite unseen: Theory and evidence on the effect of open access on cites to academic articles across the quality spectrum," Managerial and Decision Economics, vol 42(8), pages 1960-1979.

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Journal Article: Cite unseen: Theory and evidence on the effect of open access on cites to academic articles across the quality spectrum (2021)
Working Paper: Cite unseen: Theory and evidence on the effect of open access on cites to academic articles across the quality spectrum (2021)
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