Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections

Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch

No 28228, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: The downward trend in the amount of Arctic sea ice has a wide range of environmental and economic consequences including important effects on the pace and intensity of global climate change. Based on several decades of satellite data, we provide statistical forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent during the rest of this century. The best fitting statistical model indicates that overall sea ice coverage is declining at an increasing rate. By contrast, average projections from the CMIP5 global climate models foresee a gradual slowing of Arctic sea ice loss even in scenarios with high carbon emissions. Our long-range statistical projections also deliver probability assessments of the timing of an ice-free Arctic. These results indicate almost a 60 percent chance of an effectively ice-free Arctic Ocean sometime during the 2030s—much earlier than the average projection from the global climate models.

JEL-codes: C22 C51 C52 C53 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-12
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Published as Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2021. "Probability assessments of an ice-free Arctic: Comparing statistical and climate model projections," Journal of Econometrics, .

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Related works:
Journal Article: Probability assessments of an ice-free Arctic: Comparing statistical and climate model projections (2022)
Working Paper: Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections (2021)
Working Paper: Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections (2020)
Working Paper: Probability Assessments of an Ice-Free Arctic: Comparing Statistical and Climate Model Projections (2019)
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