The Impact of the Non-essential Business Closure Policy on Covid-19 Infection Rates

Hummy Song, Ryan M. McKenna, Angela T. Chen, Guy David and Aaron Smith-McLallen

No 28374, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: In response to the Covid-19 pandemic, many localities instituted non-essential business closure orders, keeping individuals categorized as essential workers at the frontlines while sending their non-essential counterparts home. We examine the extent to which being designated as an essential or non-essential worker impacts one’s risk of being Covid-positive following the non-essential business closure order in Pennsylvania. We also assess the intrahousehold transmission risk experienced by their cohabiting family members and roommates. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we estimate that workers designated as essential have a 55% higher likelihood of being positive for Covid-19 than those classified as non-essential; in other words, non-essential workers experience a protective effect. While members of the health care and social assistance subsector contribute significantly to this overall effect, it is not completely driven by them. We also find evidence of intrahousehold transmission that differs in intensity by essential status. Dependents cohabiting with an essential worker have a 17% higher likelihood of being Covid-positive compared to those cohabiting with a non-essential worker. Roommates cohabiting with an essential worker experience a 38% increase in likelihood of being Covid-positive. Analysis of households with a Covid-positive member suggests that intrahousehold transmission is an important mechanism

JEL-codes: H75 I12 I14 I18 J21 J68 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea and nep-lma
Note: EH LS PE
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Published as Hummy Song & Ryan McKenna & Angela T. Chen & Guy David & Aaron Smith-McLallen, 2021. "The impact of the non-essential business closure policy on Covid-19 infection rates," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, vol 21(4), pages 387-426.

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