The Impact of Domestic Travel Bans on COVID-19 is Nonlinear in Their Duration

Fiona Burlig, Anant Sudarshan and Garrison Schlauch

No 28699, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Domestic mobility restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 are widespread in developing countries, and have trapped millions of migrant workers in hotspot cities. We show that bans can increase cumulative infections relative to a counterfactual sans restrictions. A SEIR model shows bans’ impacts are nonlinear in duration. We empirically test this hypothesis using a natural experiment in India as well as data from China, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Africa, and Kenya. Although very short and long restrictions limit the spread of disease, moderately lengthy restrictions substantially increase infections. This underscores the importance of considering duration in mobility-restricting policy decisions in developing countries.

JEL-codes: I18 J60 O12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-hea and nep-sea
Note: DEV EH
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