Demand Shocks and Supply Chain Resilience: An Agent Based Modelling Approach and Application to the Potato Supply Chain

Liang Lu, Ruby Nguyen, Md Mamunur Rahman and Jason Winfree

No 29166, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: The food supply chain has experienced major disruptions from both demand and supply sides during the Covid-19 pandemic. While some consequences such as food waste are directly caused by the disruption due to supply chain inefficiency, others are indirectly caused by a change in consumer’s preferences. As a result, evaluating food supply chain resilience is a difficult task. With an attempt to understand impacts of demand on the food supply chain, we developed an agent-based model based on the case of Idaho’s potato supply chain. Results showed that not only the magnitude but also the timing of the demand shock will have different impacts on various stakeholders of the supply chain. Our contribution to the literature is two-fold. First, the model helps explain why food waste and shortages may occur with dramatic shifts in consumer demand. Second, this paper provides a new angle on evaluating the various mitigation strategies and policy responses to disruptions beyond Covid-19.

JEL-codes: L1 Q11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cmp, nep-cwa, nep-hme and nep-isf
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Published as Demand Shocks and Supply Chain Resilience: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach and Application to the Potato Supply Chain , Liang Lu, Ruby Nguyen, Md Mamunur Rahman, Jason Winfree. in Risks in Agricultural Supply Chains , Antràs and Zilberman. 2023

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Chapter: Demand Shocks and Supply Chain Resilience: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach and Application to the Potato Supply Chain (2021)
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