The Hot Hand in the NBA 3-Point Contest: The Importance of Location, Location, Location

Robert M. Lantis and Erik Nesson

No 29468, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Do basketball players exhibit a hot hand? Results from controlled shooting situations suggest the answer is yes, while results from in-game shooting are mixed. Are the differing results because a hot hand is only present in similar shots or because testing for the hot hand in game situations is difficult? Combining repeated shots in a location and shots across locations, the NBA 3-Point Contests mimics game situations without many of the confounding factors. Using data on the 1986-2019 contests, we find a hot hand, but only within shot locations. Shooting streaks increase a hot hand only if a player makes his previous shot and only within locations. Even making three shots in a row has no effect on making the next shot if a player moves locations. Our results suggest that any hot hand in basketball is only present in extremely similar shooting situations and likely not in the run-of-play.

JEL-codes: D81 D91 Z20 Z29 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-11
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Published as Robert Lantis & Erik Nesson, 2024. "The Hot Hand in the NBA 3-Point Contest: The Importance of Location, Location, Location," Journal of Sports Economics, vol 25(3), pages 283-321.

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