KFstar and Portfolio Inflows: A Focus on Latin America

John Burger, Francis E. Warnock and Veronica Cacdac Warnock

No 30453, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Latin American portfolio inflows show a strong tendency to revert to a natural level, KF*, over medium-run horizons. Deviations of actual flows from KF* provide policymakers with a real-time predictor of future flows, sudden stops and vulnerability to global shocks. Analysis of short-run deviations of flows from KF* reveals heterogeneous drivers: commodity prices for Brazil, Chile, and Mexico; risk tolerance for Argentina, Costa Rica, and Peru.

JEL-codes: F3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-09
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