The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020–2022

George Alessandria, Shafaat Khan, Armen Khederlarian, Carter B. Mix and Kim Ruhl

No 30849, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We study the aggregate effects of supply-chain disruptions in the post-pandemic period in a heterogeneous-firm, general equilibrium model with input-output linkages and a rich set of supply chain frictions: uncertain shipping delays, fixed order costs, and storage costs. Firms optimally hold inventories that depend on the source of supply, domestic or imported. Increases in shipping times are contractionary, raise prices, and increase stockouts, particularly for goods intensive in delayed inputs. These effects are larger when inventories are already at low levels. We fit the model to the U.S. and global economies from 2020–2022 and estimate large aggregate effects of supply disruptions. Our model predicts that the boost in output from reducing delays will be smaller than the contraction from the waning effects of stimulus.

JEL-codes: E0 F1 F4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge and nep-int
Note: EFG IFM ITI
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

Published as George Alessandria & Shafaat Yar Khan & Armen Khederlarian & Carter Mix & Kim J. Ruhl, 2023. "The aggregate effects of global and local supply chain disruptions: 2020–2022," Journal of International Economics, .
Published as The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020–2022 , George A. Alessandria, Shafaat Y. Khan, Armen Khederlarian, Carter B. Mix, Kim J. Ruhl. in NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2022 , Forbes, Gourinchas, and Reis. 2023

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w30849.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: The aggregate effects of global and local supply chain disruptions: 2020–2022 (2023)
Chapter: The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020–2022 (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30849

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w30849

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().