Firm Inflation Uncertainty
Ivan Yotzov,
Lena Anayi,
Nicholas Bloom,
Philip Bunn,
Paul Mizen,
Özgen Öztürk and
Gregory Thwaites
No 31300, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc
Abstract:
We introduce a new measure of own-price inflation uncertainty using firm-level data from a large and representative survey of UK businesses. Inflation uncertainty increased significantly from the start of 2021 and reached a peak in the second half of 2022, even as a similar measure of sales uncertainty declined. We also find large cross-sectional differences in inflation uncertainty, with uncertainty particularly elevated for smaller firms and those in the goods sector. Finally, we show that firms which are more uncertain about their own price expectations experience higher forecast errors 12 months later. These findings suggest that studying inflation uncertainty at the firm level may be an important new dimension to understanding firm performance.
JEL-codes: E0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec and nep-mon
Note: AP CF EFG ME PR
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:
Published as Ivan Yotzov & Lena Anayi & Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Özgen Öztürk & Gregory Thwaites, 2023. "Firm Inflation Uncertainty," AEA Papers and Proceedings, vol 113, pages 56-60.
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w31300.pdf (application/pdf)
Related works:
Journal Article: Firm Inflation Uncertainty (2023) 
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31300
Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w31300
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().