Can Housing Policy Raise Birth Rates? Lessons from Federal Mortgage Programs During the Baby Boom

Lisa Dettling and Melissa Kearney

No 33446, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: The widespread decline in births has raised questions about what governments might do to increase aggregate birth rates. This paper studies the mid-20th century introduction of federally backed mortgages to examine whether housing policy can raise birth rates. Using newly digitized data and exogenous variation in loan supply, we find that the introduction of federally backed mortgages led to a meaningful increase in births. Supplementary analyses suggest that the intervention led to an earlier age of homeownership, first marriage, and first birth, and ultimately to higher completed fertility. This provides new evidence that large-scale demand-side housing policies can be pro-natalist.

JEL-codes: G21 H31 J13 N32 R38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban, nep-dem, nep-his and nep-ure
Note: CH DAE LS ME PE
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