Estimating the Footprint of Artisanal Mining in Africa

Darin Christensen, Tamma Carleton, Esther Rolf, Cullen Molitor, Shopnavo Biswas, Karena Yan and Graeme Blair

No 33646, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) supplies livelihoods and critical minerals but has been linked to conflict and environmental degradation. We enable monitoring of this largely informal sector by creating high-resolution maps of ASM's footprint in Africa using machine learning models that integrate geographic features and satellite imagery. We find ASM is more extensive than documented: in five countries with on-the-ground surveys, we predict over 231,000 1-km2 grid cells [±2 standard errors: 170,153-297,710] contain ASM activity – over 40 times that recorded by surveyors. Adapting methods for spatial domain adaptation, we map ASM across 20 total countries, estimating that 4% [2-8%] of territory and 17% [10-30%] of the population are impacted by ASM, which encroaches on a larger share of settlements and ecosystems than previously understood.

JEL-codes: Q32 Q49 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-04
Note: EEE
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