U.S. Demographics and Saving: Predictions of Three Saving Models

Alan Auerbach, Jinyong Cai and Laurence Kotlikoff

No 3404, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper compares the predictions of three different saving models with respect to the impact of projected U.S. demographic change on future U.S. saving rates. The three models are the life cycle model, the infinite horizon altruism model, and a reduced form econometric model. The findings for the different models indicate a great range of possible paths of future U.S. saving. However, the three models concur in predicting a peak in the U.S. national saving rate in the near future (within 15 years), followed by a significant decline in the saving rate thereafter. In fact, the findings suggest the strong possibility of negative U.S. saving rates beginning after 2030.

Date: 1990-07
Note: PE
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Published as Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 34, pp. 135-156 , (Spring 1991).

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Journal Article: U.S. demographics and saving: Predictions of three saving models (1991)
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