Do Markets Believe in Transformative AI?

Isaiah Andrews and Maryam Farboodi

No 34243, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We examine US bond yields around 30 major AI model release dates from four frontier labs between November 2022 and December 2025. Long-term Treasury and TIPS yields fall around these releases and remain lower for weeks, with the declines concentrated around releases that a crowdsourced forecast interprets as good news about the rate of AI progress. These changes are statistically significant according to a variety of small-sample valid statistical tests, and suggest that investors may take seriously the possibility of transformative impacts from AI.

JEL-codes: E43 E44 G1 G12 G14 O30 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ain, nep-ifn and nep-inv
Note: AP EFG
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