Worker Preparedness Across the Marshallian Runs Survey Instruments and Early Evidence from the Copenhagen Life Panel

Andrew Caplin, Søren Leth-Petersen, Victoria Gregory, Ida Maria Hartmann, Eungik Lee and Johan Sæverud

No 34570, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Worker preparedness is a missing transmission channel in macroeconomics. Alfred Marshall’s taxonomy of short-, medium-, and long-run adjustment was developed to analyse how firms respond to shocks when different inputs can or cannot adjust. We extend this logic to workers by adding an element Marshall’s framework leaves implicit: anticipation. Preparedness refers to the buffers, search strategies, fallback plans, and retraining intentions individuals form before disruption occurs. These forward-looking margins shape both microeconomic outcomes and the effectiveness of macroeconomic policy. The registry-linked Copenhagen Life Panel (CLP) provides a data architecture for making preparedness observable. By embedding belief and strategy elicitation within administrative records, the CLP makes it possible to test whether workers’ expectations and contingency plans are calibrated to the risks they face. Early evidence shows that short-run preparedness—liquidity, earnings-risk beliefs, and separation expectations—is measurable and predictive, and that miscalibration is a key source of vulnerability. The broader agenda is to measure preparedness across Marshallian runs and across the worker life cycle. In the medium run, adjustment depends on search strategies and fallback planning; in the long run, retraining and occupational reorientation determine whether technological disruption becomes renewal or decline. We outline survey instruments for each run that can be integrated with registry data, transforming preparedness from conjecture into measurable and model-ready constructs.

JEL-codes: E7 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-12
Note: EFG
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