Missing Black Men? The Impact of Non-Reporting on Estimates of Labor Market Outcomes for Black Men

Adrienne Sabety and Ariella K. Spitzer

No 34724, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Adult Black men persistently do not report to household-based surveys, with demographers estimating non-reporting rates of 7-14% from 1970-2020. We derive a method to account for incomplete data and show that non-reporting rates are up to 5.5 percentage points (pp) larger than prior estimates, with significant heterogeneity by year. We then show that Black men at risk of incarceration drive non-reporting. We use state-year variation in incarceration rates to estimate that 35-83% of the incarcerated population would have been non-reporting if not incarcerated. Adjusting for previously uncorrected non-reporting shows that the Black-white gap in high-school completion is 20-39% (3.0-5.9 pp) larger, college attendance is 8-18% (3.1-6.1 pp) larger, and earnings is 10-20% (2.8-5.7 pp) larger. In contrast, the gap in employment is 4-8% (0.6-1.6 pp) smaller than previously thought.

JEL-codes: J1 J2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01
Note: LS
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