Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics

Milagros Onofri, Inés Berniell, Raquel Fernandez and Azul Menduiña

No 34749, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper examines the sharp decline in fertility across Latin America using both period and cohort measures. Combining Vital Statistics, Census microdata, and UN population data, we decompose changes in fertility by age, education, and joint age–education groups. We show that the decline in period fertility between 2000 and 2022 is driven primarily by reductions in within-group birth rates rather than by changes in population composition, with the largest contributions coming from younger and less-educated women. Comparing the cohort born in the mid 1950s and the one born in the mid 1970s, we find that the decline in completed fertility reflects not only delayed childbearing but also substantial reductions in the average number of children per woman. This is driven primarily by lower fertility among mothers rather than by rising childlessness. Our findings provide new evidence on the nature of Latin America’s transition to below-replacement fertility and highlight several open questions for future research.

JEL-codes: J11 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-01
Note: CH PE
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