Rental Adjustment & Valuation of Real Estate in Overbuilt Markets: Fundamental vs. Reported Office Market Values in Sydney Australia

Patric Hendershott

No 4775, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: Real estate markets are periodically plagued by excess supply, rent concessions and few arms-length transactions. During such periods, valuation is problematic. The model presented here requires the forecasts of future vacancy rates, and equilibrium and actual rental rates. Vacancy rate forecasts of market participants are obtained, the equilibrium rental rate is specified as the cost of capital, and a rental adjustment equation is estimated in which real effective Sydney office market rents are related to gaps between both natural and actual vacancy rates and equilibrium and actual real effective rental rates. Value estimates (relative to replacement cost) for 1992, including that for above-market leases, are computed and the sensitivity to key assumptions is shown. Value/replacement-cost calculations are then made for the entire 1985-92 period and contrasted with comparable estimates implicit in data published by BOMA and JLW, two prominent Australian real estate sources. Lastly, the ratios of real effective rents to equilibrium rents and value to replacement cost are projected for the 1993-2006 period.

JEL-codes: G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1994-06
Note: PE
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Published as Journal of Urban Economics, vol. 39, 1996, pp. 51-67

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