The Seasonality of Consumer Prices

Michael F. Bryan and Stephen Cecchetti

No 5173, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: In this paper, we reevaluate the evidence of seasonality in prices which we find to be substantially greater than previous research has indicated. That is, seasonal price movements have become more prominent in the relatively stable inflation environment that has prevailed since 1982. One main conclusion is drawn from this analysis: The amount of seasonality in prices differs greatly by item, making it difficult to generalize about seasonal price movements. A casual reading fails to reveal an easily identifiable origin of the seasonal variation of prices. That is, seasonality in consumer prices is predominantly idiosyncratic in nature, a result that contrasts with studies demonstrating a common seasonal cycle in real economic variables. This finding has an important practical implication: Given the selective, disaggregated approach taken by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to adjust data seasonally, the existence of idiosyncratic seasonality increases the likelihood of allowing noise in the aggregate CPI at a seasonal frequency. This argues in favor of seasonally adjusting the index after aggregation.

JEL-codes: C31 C43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995-07
Note: ME
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Published as "The Seasonality of Inflation" Economic Review of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, (1995 Quarter 2), pp. 12-23.

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.nber.org/papers/w5173.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: The seasonality of consumer prices (1995)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5173

Ordering information: This working paper can be ordered from
http://www.nber.org/papers/w5173

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by (wpc@nber.org).