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Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators

Arturo Estrella and Frederic Mishkin ()

No 5379, NBER Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This article examines the performance of various financial variables as predictors of subsequent U.S. recessions. Series such as interest rates and spreads, stock prices, currencies, and monetary aggregates are evaluated singly and in comparison with other financial and non-financial indicators. The analysis focuses on out-of-sample performance from 1 to 8 quarters ahead. Results show that stock prices are useful with 1-2 quarter horizons, as are some well-known macroeconomic indicators. Beyond 2 quarters, the slope of the yield curve emerges as the clear choice, and typically performs better by itself out of sample than in conjunction with other variables.

JEL-codes: E52 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995-12
Note: EFG ME
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Published as Review of Economics and Statistics, vol.80, no.1, pp. 45-61, February 1998.

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Related works:
Journal Article: Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators (1998) Downloads
Working Paper: Predicting U.S. recessions: financial variables as leading indicators (1996) Downloads
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